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Friday, February 13, 2009

Climate change may kill the Amazon rainforest

The dieback of the Amazonian forests caused by climate change is not inevitable but remains a distinct possibility, according to a study led by the Professor of Ecosystem Science at Oxford.

The study, published in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, is a detailed examination of the climatic and ecological evidence of the likelihood of an Amazon dieback. The researchers conclude that the fate of Amazonian forests will critically depend on the interaction between global climate change and local deforestation and fire use. The study suggests direct intervention to maintain the forest is needed to minimise the risk of a ‘tipping point’ or dieback occurring.

Researchers analysed the simulations of 19 Global Climate Models, comparing them with climate observations from the 20th century, and found that almost all the models under-estimated current Amazonian rainfall. This underestimation occurs because climate models are unable to capture some of the peculiar features of the geography of South America.

After correcting this underestimation of rainfall, they found that most models suggested that Eastern Amazonia was likely to shift towards a more seasonally dry ‘monsoonal’ climate rather than a dry ‘savannah’ climate. This suggests that Amazonia would remain wet enough over the year to sustain a forest although some models suggested a large reduction in rainfall was still a possibility.

The study then examined recent ecological field studies that have explored how Amazonian forests respond to seasonal drying. Critically, these seasonal forests may be fairly resilient to occasional drought, but are likely to be more vulnerable to fires. The study warns that these areas will become tinderboxes if deforestation, logging and heavy fire use is not controlled.

Lead author Professor Yadvinder Malhi, from the Environmental Change Institute at Oxford, said: ‘Forest protection within Eastern Amazonia could play a major role in minimising the prospects of major dieback, while also contributing to tackling global climate change. Forest cover will help Eastern Amazonia adapt to climate change by helping maintain local rainfall in the dry season, limiting the spread of fires and stopping surface temperatures rising too high. This will help people living in the local towns as well as the forests themselves.

He added: ‘Even with sufficent funds and willpower, the implementation of ‘Biosphere Management’ on such a scale will be a huge challenge. Brazil has recently announced an ambitious plan for slowing down Amazonian deforestation and deserves full international support. It will be critically important to understand the local and national social, political and economic context if this strategy is to succeed. We urgently need to protect one of our planet’s most important ecosystems and at the same time mitigate against climate change.

‘Active forest protection in the Amazon forest region can help the region adapt to climate change and minimise the risk of a dieback. This strategy will also contribute to the global effort to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.’

The research was led by Oxford University in collaboration with the School of Geosciences, University of Edinburgh; Centre for Ecology and Hydrology, Wallingford, Oxfordshire; Department of Animal and Plant Sciences, Sheffield; and the Met Office Hadley Centre, Jointcentre for Hydro-Meteorological Research, Wallingford.

http://insciences.org/article.php?article_id=2171

Prince Charles dedicates 2009 to rainforests

Prince Charles plans to spend this year focused on his project to save the world’s rainforests.

The heir to the throne said he is dedicating 2009 to what he describes as “one of the biggest crises facing the planet,” global warming caused by deforestation.

Sixty year old Charles may also appear in adverts with Hollywood star Harrison Ford to raise awareness of rainforest destruction.

Next month Charles is visiting the Amazon rainforest, where he will deliver a key note speech prior to the Copenhagen 2009 summit on climate change.

A spokesperson for the Prince said: “The Prince’s Rainforest Project is working to build a coalition to find a solution to deforestation.

“Part of this project is looking at improving public awareness of the link between climate change and deforestation.

“Any campaign, if one were to run, would be likely to be focused on the digital media.”

http://www.fairhome.co.uk/2009/02/12/prince-charles-dedicates-2009-to-rainforests/

WSF: Is Another World Possible?

Global Justice Movement

At a time of worldwide economic, climatic and political crisis, advocates of social justice gathered for the annual World Social Forum to contemplate a new vision for a better world.

The recently concluded World Social Forum is a good gauge for assessing the state of the world's alternative social, economic and political movements. Organized in 2001 as a counterpoint to the World Economic Forum, the annual meeting of global and corporate elites held in Davos, Switzerland, the WSF brings social movement organizations and activists from around the world together around the idea that "another world is possible." If Davos represents a failed globalization from above, the WSF represents an emerging globalization from below. It's a massive affair--this year more than 100,000 people gathered here for the five-day event. Part political convention, part carnival, part countercultural happening, the WSF serves as the center of gravity for the global justice movement that emerged in the late 1990s to contest corporate globalization.

The question on the minds of many was how to respond to what some call the "crisis of crises"--the economic, climate, political and cultural catastrophes that have engulfed the planet--and whether social movements can provide a unifying alternative vision for a better world. Economist Walden Bello of Focus on the Global South summed it up: "There is a sense of urgency and seriousness combining both pragmatism and principle. There is much less rhetoric. Things are taking place very fast outstripping what many predicted. There is a clear collapse of neo-liberalism. We have been triumphant over Davos.... Now we need alternatives and must get down to the hard work of creating them."

Why Belém?

Even before the economic crisis broke, Belém was chosen as this year's site to highlight environmental threats. Located sixty miles from the Atlantic on Guajara Bay in the Amazon estuary, Belém is no stranger to environmental conflicts or to impact of globalization. Originally built as an outpost of the Portuguese empire, it served for centuries as a gateway to Amazonia and shipping point for the region's natural resources. Today it is a port of call for container ships picking up aluminum, iron ore, lumber and other riches of the rainforest.

According to climate change activist Oscar Reyes of Carbon Watch, the selection Belém was appropriate: "The deforestation issue is connected into the global negotiations and essential to dealing with climate change. The threat to the Amazon--an area that contains half the remaining rainforest in the world--is not primarily from small-scale deforestation, it's pulp mills, mining, cattle, soy, and agrifuels. You can make sense of that in Belém where these are real and live issues."

Hard economic times and the remoteness of the location skewed the turnout this year--the vast majority of the participants were from Brazil and Latin America--but there were still healthy contingents from every continent. While most of the 5,808 participating organizations were from Latin America, about 1,600 were drawn from the rest of the world, including 491 from Europe, 489 from Africa, 334 from Asia and 155 from North America. In addition to the rank-and-file participants, the presidents of Brazil, Venezuela, Bolivia, Ecuador and Paraguay also made appearances.

The WSF also chose to highlight the Amazon's indigenous people. Their attendance was not a folkloric touch: in marches and other events, indigenous participants demanded that their concerns be addressed and that their struggle for cultural survival be part of the global justice movement. From their perspective, the "other world" the WSF envisions must include space for those who have made a different pact with modernity.

This forum carried on its tradition of logistical chaos. The 2,310 "self-organized seminars" and other events were spread out over two university campuses along the banks of the river about a mile and a half apart and a few miles from the center of the city. Some participants complained of spending more time ferrying back and forth between campuses in taxis, buses and on a flotilla of old riverboats than they did in meetings.

The global economic meltdown made the Belém forum different from previous ones. The WSF and the global justice movement were formed in the expansive phase of globalization; now they must adapt to global economic contraction and impending environmental disaster. This year's participants know that they were right about the failure of corporate-led globalization, but they also know that just saying no is no longer adequate. The prospects of a global wave of beggar-thy-neighbor currency devaluations and destructive trade policies in response to the crisis and the revival of virulent nationalism loomed over the discussions. Many wondered if what was once dubbed the "anti-globalization movement" could produce a global response based on global solidarity.

Impacts of the Global Crisis

There was general agreement that the economic meltdown is spilling over national borders, but it is unfolding at a different pace and in varied ways across the world.

Gautam Mody ,of India's New Trade Union Initiative, told The Nation that "given the sheer number of irregular workers, most on contract, in India the crisis is as yet invisible...but millions of these workers have been pushed off the shop floor." These layoffs go largely unrecorded and workers receive no benefits. And Kjeld Jacobsen, of the Social Observatory in Sao Paulo, said that despite obvious signs that the crisis will rival that of the 1930s, "it's still hard to convince some workers of the severity of the coming crisis because it is just beginning."

In continental Europe, the crisis is still dubbed the "financial crisis," an indication that it is not yet being felt in the so-called "real economy" of everyday life. Bruno Ciccaglione, an Italian trade unionist, told us that "in the US the crisis helped to delegitimize the political class and particularly the Bush administration. But in Europe many of the governments that were very weak before the crisis--like Sarkozy in France, Brown in the UK and to some extent Berlusconi in Italy--came out stronger as a result of their economic packages and solutions, so the delegitimization of the political class for the moment has not occurred. But it will as the crisis moves into the real economy." The current strikes in France in response to large-scale layoffs are an indication that things are changing fast in Europe, he added.

There is also widespread worry in Europe over a possible right-wing backlash. Norwegian political activist Asbjorn Wahl explained why: "We have strong right-wing parties in many European countries, including my own country where they get almost 35 percent of the vote--and about that much of the working-class vote. If we don't come up with good alternatives that address people's needs, we may see that grow. It's a race between the right and the left, and at the moment, and for the last ten years, the right is gaining more. We have a history of the right taking over during in a crisis in Europe."

A recurrent theme in many of the discussions was that elites could use the crisis to reinvent capitalism in new and insidious ways. And many from developing countries raised concerns that the emerging crises piled onto to the longstanding crises of global poverty, migration and access to basic human needs like healthcare and clean water could have a devastating impact.

Networks of Networks

The World Social Forum has played an essential role in the "post-Seattle" world (a reference to the 1999 confrontation between anti-globalization activists and the World Trade Association) by serving as a center of gravity for a movement comprised of a diverse array of organizations, each with its own issues, agendas, programs and constituencies and with a global geographic spread. The WSF has been an incubator for the creation of many successful advocacy networks focused on specific issues related to labor, trade, finance, migration, the environment, human rights, poverty and alternative economic organizations. But there has been limited interaction among these networks. The networks remained "trapped in their own silos," in the words of one forum speaker.

That changed this year. A major push for "cross-network convergence"--creating networks of networks--dominated much of the discussion, and could mark a new stage in the global justice movement's development. French activist Ameile Cannone, of the Seattle to Brussels Network, described it this way: "The context is different; we face a global crisis, people have decided to put that at the center of their activities. It's a real opportunity to work across networks, a great first step to start working on climate, labor and development issues I don't think it would have been possible before and for us this is really a good step."

There is a great deal of work to be done. For instance, the discussion in Belém among labor organizations demonstrated that they have still not found ways to integrate action on climate change--something that will change the way their members live and work--into their daily strategies and practices. Indeed, the climate issue rarely came up in debates about labor's future, but when pressed most acknowledged it as a critical trade union issue.

It was also clear that environmental activists need to develop a better understanding of the effects of climate change mitigation on employment if they are to build lasting alliances with unions. Only a few trade unionists attended the climate change network meetings and only a few climate change activists attended the labor gatherings. But those exchanges are likely to increase as a result of actions taken in Belém

G-20 and Copenhagen

Amid the usual anti-capitalist boilerplate, the closing statement of the Bel& eacute;m Forum, says: "The challenge for the social movements is to achieve a convergence of global mobilization. It is also to strengthen our ability to act by supporting the convergence of all movements striving to withstand oppression and exploitation."

Two upcoming events will test this new commitment to "convergence:" the G-20 Economic Summit, to be held in London at the end of March, and the climate treaty talks, to be held Copenhagen in December. There is a general sense that these events offer a crucial opportunity for popular movements to mobilize and make their voices heard.

As for the future of the World Social Forum, it remains a flawed but essential institution of global civil society. Critics believe it has become too big and unruly--a carnival rather than a political gathering. It is not a setting for serious policy debates. And there has always been tension between those who would push the forum to be more of a social actor and those that want the forum to remain an "open space" for building relationships and sharing ideas. On her way home, Haeyoung Yoon, of the New York-based CAAAV Organizing Asian Communities as well as the Grassroots Global Justice Network, reflected on this tension: "The Social Forum has to be different. It should be an open space, but a partisan open space." Finding that balance in a time of crisis will be difficult.

http://www.thenation.com/doc/20090302/costello_smith

Wednesday, February 11, 2009

Global warming may drive the Amazon rainforest toward seasonal forests rather than savanna

Changes in rainfall resulting from climate change may drive the parts of Amazon rainforest toward seasonal forests rather than savanna, argue researchers writing in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences

Comparing climate simulations by 19 global climate models with observations from the 20th century, Yadvinder Malhi and colleagues found that most projections underestimate rainfall, suggesting the Eastern Amazon will still have enough precipitation to support seasonal forest, rather than savanna. The conclusion contrast to the "dieback" theory — which holds that the southern and eastern Amazon would transition towards savanna with warming — advanced by other researchers.


Deforesation, fire, and forest in the Peruvian Amazon
"The rainfall regime of E. Amazonia is likely to shift over the 21st century in a direction that favors more seasonal forests rather than savanna," write the authors. "Under mid-high-range emissions scenarios, there is a high probability of intensified dry seasons in E. Amazonia and a medium probability that the rainfall regime will shift sufficiently to a climate state where seasonal forest is more viable than rainforest."

However, the authors caution that a die-back is still a "distinct possibility" due to increasing deforestation, forest degradation through logging, and fragmentation, which desiccate forests and increase their risk to fire.

"These seasonal forests may be resilient to seasonal drought but are likely to face intensified water stress caused by higher temperatures and to be vulnerable to fires, which are at present naturally rare in much of Amazonia," they write. "The spread of fire ignition associated with advancing deforestation, logging, and fragmentation may act as nucleation points that trigger the transition of these seasonal forests into fire-dominated, low biomass forests."

The authors say that reducing human pressures on the Amazon could increase its resilience to climate change.

"Deliberate limitation of deforestation and fire may be an effective intervention to maintain Amazonian forest resilience in the face of imposed 21st-century climate change. This may be enough to navigate Eastern Amazonia away from a possible 'tipping point,' beyond which extensive rainforest would become unsustainable."

http://news.mongabay.com/2009/0211-amazon.html

Brazilian environmental activist rehabilitated

The late Brazilian environmental activist Chico Mendes has been officially rehabilitated more than 20 years after his death. The Brazilian government published the decision in today's edition of the gazette.

Mr Mendes' widow will receive 112,000 euros in damages and a life pension of 1,000 euros a month. Chico Mendes was also acquitted of all charges brought against him.

The former union leader is known as one the first prominent activists fighting for the preservation of Brazil's tropical rainforest. He was shot dead outside his house by landowners in 1988.

Before that, he was repeatedly prosecuted by the then Brazilian dictatorship.

http://www.radionetherlands.nl/news/international/6172892/Brazilian-environmental-activist-rehabilitated

France's Suez liable for illegal deforestation, "dynamite fishing" in the Amazon rainforest

A consortium building the Jirau hydroelectric dam in Brazil near the Bolivian border has been ordered to pay roughly $3.5 million in fines for illegally logging nearly 50 acres (18.6 ha) of forest and using dynamite to kill 11 tons of fish in local rivers, reports the Spanish news agency EFE.

The consortium, led by France's Suez, began construction on the project last November. The $5.3 billion dam will generate 3.3 gigawatts (GW) of power when it becomes operational in 2016. The Madeira hydroelectric complex also includes the 3.15 GW San Antonio dam, which is scheduled to go online in 2012 and will cost $5 billion.

The project has been fiercely contested by environmentalists who say it will impede migration of fish species, flood more than 200 square miles (520 sq km) of rainforest triggering greenhouse gas emissions from rotting vegetation, and promote colonization in the ecologically-sensitive area.

The Madeira is the longest tributary of the Amazon River.

$11B Amazon rainforest dam gets initial approval July 10, 2007
The Brazilian government has given preliminary go-ahead on a massive Amazon dam project that environmentalists and scientists say could be a potential ecological disaster.

http://news.mongabay.com/2009/0211-madeira_dam.html

Monday, February 9, 2009

Amazon forest may get drier, but survive warming

Amazonian forests may be less vulnerable to dying off from global warming than feared because many projections underestimate rainfall, a study showed.

The report, by scientists in Britain, said Brazil and other nations in the region would also have to act to help avert any irreversible drying of the eastern Amazon, the region most at risk from climate change, deforestation and fires.

"The rainfall regime in eastern Amazonia is likely to shift over the 21st century in a direction that favors more seasonal forests rather than savannah," they wrote in this week's U.S. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, released on Monday.

Seasonal forests have wet and dry seasons rather than the current rainforest, which is permanently drenched. That shift could favor new species of trees, other plants and animals.

The findings contrast with past projections that the Amazon forest could die and be replaced by savannah.

A 2007 report by the U.N. Climate Panel, which is a snapshot of global warming science by the world's leading experts, said: "By mid-century, increases in temperature and associated decreases in soil water are projected to lead to gradual replacement of tropical forest by savannah in eastern Amazonia."

The new study said that almost all of 19 global climate models underestimated rainfall in the world's biggest tropical forest after the scientists compared the models with observations of 20th century climate.

Lowland forests in the Amazon have annual average rainfall of 2,400 mm (94 inches), it said. Projected cuts in rainfall meant the region would still be wet enough to sustain a forest.

The experts also examined field studies of how the Amazon might react to drying. It said that seasonal forests would be more resilient to the occasional drought but more vulnerable to fires than the current rainforest.

"The fundamental way to minimize the risk of Amazon dieback is to control greenhouse gas emissions globally, particularly from fossil fuel combustion in the developed world and Asia," said Yadvinder Malhi, the lead author from Oxford University.

But he said that governments led by Brazil also needed to manage the forests better.

Global warming is "accompanied by an unprecedented intensity of direct pressure on the tropical forests through logging, deforestation, fragmentation, and fire use," the scientists wrote.

And fires, including those touched off by lightning, were more likely to cause wide damage to forests already fragmented by roads or by farmers clearing land to plant crops such as soya beans.


http://uk.reuters.com/article/scienceNews/idUKTRE5187OV20090209